PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .398
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.