PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .405
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .438 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.