PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .306Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 15%Cutter 14%Changeup 12%Sweeper 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .401
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.