PITCHER MATCHUP

Stephen Kolek vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Stephen Kolek's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Stephen Kolek's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Slider 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 11%Sweeper 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Stephen Kolek, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .398
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.