PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 19%Sweeper 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-11 game page →