PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.