PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 20%Sweeper 20%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.