PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 20%Sweeper 20%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 492 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.