PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-19 game page →