PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 HD Henry Davis RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JG Jacob Gonzalez LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Gonzalez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-15 game page →