PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .300Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BB Brett Baty LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Juan Soto LHB .377
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .440 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MV Mark Vientos RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mark Vientos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FL Francisco Lindor SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →