PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 20%Sweeper 20%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .441 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.