PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 21%Sweeper 19%Sinker 19%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →