PITCHER MATCHUP

Sonny Gray vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sonny Gray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sonny Gray's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .296Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 20%Sweeper 20%Curveball 17%Cutter 16%Changeup 7%Slider 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sonny Gray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.