PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VC Victor Caratini SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.