PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 KC Kody Clemens SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RL Royce Lewis RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BB Byron Buxton RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .416 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.