PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .259vs RHH xwOBA .253Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 11%Splitter 8%Sinker 6%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BB Byron Buxton RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 BL Brooks Lee SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KC Kody Clemens SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RL Royce Lewis RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-24 game page →