PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .413 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.