PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .276
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.