PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .273
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.