PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 470 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.