PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 6%Slider 4%Cutter 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →