PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .262vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 6%Slider 4%Cutter 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .434 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.