PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.