PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.