PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.