PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .260vs RHH xwOBA .248Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 6%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-03 game page →