PITCHER MATCHUP

Shohei Ohtani vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shohei Ohtani's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shohei Ohtani's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sweeper 27%Curveball 10%Splitter 8%Sinker 7%Slider 4%Cutter 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shohei Ohtani, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.