PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .415 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .392
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .427 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.