PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TP Tristan Peters LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.