PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 567 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.