PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .414Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Knuckle Curve 19%Changeup 17%Slider 16%Cutter 13%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →