PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .267
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.