PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.