PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 713 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .475 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.