PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .325vs RHH xwOBA .398Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 15%Cutter 13%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 659 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .369
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →