PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.