PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .424Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Knuckle Curve 17%Slider 17%Changeup 15%Cutter 13%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LR Luis Rengifo SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →