PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.