PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .390Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 14%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TW Taylor Ward RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 597 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VR Victor Robles RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.