PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .425 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.