PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .405Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Slider 19%Knuckle Curve 18%Cutter 13%Changeup 13%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luke Raley LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →