PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LR Leo Rivas SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.