PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .370Seasons 2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Slider 21%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 13%Cutter 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .385
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jake Meyers RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Meyers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (13% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-23 game page →