PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .325vs RHH xwOBA .398Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 15%Cutter 13%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .402
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .426 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.