PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .396
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .421 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.