PITCHER MATCHUP

Shane Bieber vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Shane Bieber's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Shane Bieber's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Knuckle Curve 18%Changeup 17%Slider 13%Cutter 13%Sinker 2%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Shane Bieber, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .395
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .417 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .420 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (2% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.