PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%SV 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 BD Brenton Doyle RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brenton Doyle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.