PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%SV 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.