PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .355vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%SV 7%Sweeper 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-02 game page →