PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%SV 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.