PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%SV 7%Sweeper 5%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 LR Luis Rengifo SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-17 game page →