PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .355vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%SV 6%Sweeper 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.