PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 20%Sinker 17%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%SV 7%Sweeper 5%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 LT Leody Taveras SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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