PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%SV 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.