PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .355vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%SV 6%Sweeper 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 JY Jared Young LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 LT Luis Torrens RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.