PITCHER MATCHUP

Seth Lugo vs Cleveland Guardians

How the Cleveland Guardians's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Seth Lugo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Seth Lugo's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .358vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 19%Sinker 18%Curveball 16%Cutter 14%Changeup 9%Slider 8%Sweeper 7%SV 6%CS 3%Splitter 1%

How the Cleveland Guardians's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cleveland Guardians's top-9-by-AB hitters against Seth Lugo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JA Jo Adell RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jo Adell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 SK Steven Kwan LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 680 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 AM Angel Martínez SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 605 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.