PITCHER MATCHUP

Sandy Alcantara vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sandy Alcantara's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sandy Alcantara's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Sinker 26%Changeup 21%Four-Seam Fastball 18%Slider 14%Cutter 14%Sweeper 5%Curveball 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sandy Alcantara, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .397
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (26% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.