PITCHER MATCHUP

Sam Aldegheri vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sam Aldegheri's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sam Aldegheri's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Changeup 28%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sam Aldegheri, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TS Trevor Story RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.