PITCHER MATCHUP

Sam Aldegheri vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sam Aldegheri's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sam Aldegheri's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .372vs RHH xwOBA .354Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Changeup 28%Slider 10%Curveball 10%Cutter 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sam Aldegheri, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →