PITCHER MATCHUP

Sam Aldegheri vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sam Aldegheri's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sam Aldegheri's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Changeup 28%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sam Aldegheri, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BW Ben Williamson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NF Nick Fortes RHB .268
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.