PITCHER MATCHUP

Sam Aldegheri vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sam Aldegheri's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sam Aldegheri's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .382vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Changeup 28%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sam Aldegheri, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RP Richie Palacios LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .269
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.