PITCHER MATCHUP

Sam Aldegheri vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Sam Aldegheri's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Sam Aldegheri's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .389vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Changeup 28%Slider 12%Curveball 9%Cutter 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Sam Aldegheri, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .270
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.