PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 59%Slider 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 10%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Austin Martin RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.