PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 59%Slider 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 10%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TG Tristan Gray LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Gray
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.