PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 60%Slider 15%Cutter 11%Curveball 10%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BB Byron Buxton RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BL Brooks Lee SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KC Kody Clemens SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Austin Martin RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RL Royce Lewis RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →