PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 60%Slider 15%Cutter 11%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AM Austin Martin RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.