PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 59%Slider 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 10%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.