PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .324vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 60%Slider 14%Cutter 12%Curveball 10%Changeup 4%Sinker 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (60% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.