PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryne Nelson vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryne Nelson's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryne Nelson's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 59%Slider 15%Cutter 12%Curveball 10%Changeup 3%Sinker 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryne Nelson, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (59% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.