PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Weathers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Weathers's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Weathers's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .321vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 32%Changeup 25%Sweeper 21%Sinker 14%Slider 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Weathers, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-20 game page →