PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .388vs RHH xwOBA .270Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Curveball 13%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Cutter 11%Sweeper 11%Slider 2%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willi Castro SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 KK Kyle Karros RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 EJ Edouard Julien LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edouard Julien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-02 game page →