PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Sweeper 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 551 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.