PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .361vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Curveball 12%Changeup 12%Cutter 12%Sweeper 11%Sinker 11%Slider 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 616 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →