PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .365vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 705 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .450 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .379
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 564 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.