PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Sweeper 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .447 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .377
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.