PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Sweeper 11%Slider 5%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.