PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .383vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Curveball 13%Changeup 12%Sinker 12%Cutter 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 3%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.