PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Sweeper 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.