PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 37%Curveball 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 12%Sweeper 11%Slider 5%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 587 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 604 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyrone Taylor RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyrone Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-05 game page →