PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .389vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Curveball 13%Changeup 12%Cutter 11%Sinker 11%Sweeper 10%Slider 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-27 game page →