PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .371vs RHH xwOBA .278Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Curveball 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Sweeper 11%Slider 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.