PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Sweeper 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JJ Jim Jarvis LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jim Jarvis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 SM Sean Murphy RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sean Murphy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.