PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .384vs RHH xwOBA .274Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Curveball 12%Changeup 12%Cutter 12%Sinker 11%Sweeper 11%Slider 3%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 OA Ozzie Albies SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MO Matt Olson LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-04 game page →