PITCHER MATCHUP

Ryan Gusto vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ryan Gusto's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ryan Gusto's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .366vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Curveball 12%Cutter 12%Changeup 12%Sweeper 11%Sinker 11%Slider 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ryan Gusto, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 669 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 DS Dominic Smith LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.