PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .345vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Splitter 34%Slider 16%Sweeper 4%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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