PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .340Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 18%Sweeper 3%FO 2%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.