PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .334Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 17%Sweeper 3%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.