PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 18%Sweeper 3%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ST Samad Taylor SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samad Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.