PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .356vs RHH xwOBA .333Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 15%Sweeper 5%Sinker 1%FO 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LT Leody Taveras SH .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CM Coby Mayo RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-19 game page →