PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 18%Sweeper 3%FO 2%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 576 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 629 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.