PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 17%Sweeper 4%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LR Luke Raley LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Colt Emerson LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (17% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-30 game page →