PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .339Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 18%Sweeper 3%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.