PITCHER MATCHUP

Roki Sasaki vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Roki Sasaki's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Roki Sasaki's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .324vs RHH xwOBA .342Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Splitter 34%Slider 18%Sweeper 3%FO 1%Sinker 1%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Roki Sasaki, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 633 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 LT Lane Thomas RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →