PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .304vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 7%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.