PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .307vs RHH xwOBA .320Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 5%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Connor Norby RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.