PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .322Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 5%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-24 game page →