PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .329Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 8%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.