PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .300vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 5%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 CY Cole Young LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 553 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 608 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VR Victor Robles RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.