PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 8%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.