PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Slider 25%Changeup 14%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 4%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 LR Luke Raley LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-19 game page →