PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 49%Slider 25%Changeup 14%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 1%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dominic Smith LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →