PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .306vs RHH xwOBA .318Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Slider 25%Changeup 14%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 4%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 OA Ozzie Albies SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 MO Matt Olson LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AR Austin Riley RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.