PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Slider 24%Changeup 14%Knuckle Curve 11%Sinker 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .382
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-07 game page →