PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .302vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .374
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.