PITCHER MATCHUP

Robbie Ray vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Robbie Ray's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Robbie Ray's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .309vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 24%Changeup 15%Knuckle Curve 12%Sinker 8%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Robbie Ray, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .374
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BM Brice Matthews RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Knuckle Curve (12% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.